One of the most controversial subjects in the gambling world is dice control. Some players swear by it, and others are convinced that there’s no way it works. While I admit that I’m skeptical about how realistic dice control is, it does offer enough possibilities that you should consider it.
The first thing you need to know is how it works. This is fairly simple, and you can learn more about it in the next section. The how it works section also includes a step by step guide on how to set up your own practice area to get started.
You’re also going to learn why you should consider trying to control the dice. The house edge is fairly low in craps, so if you can alter the outcomes even a small amount it can make a huge difference to your end results.
The final section includes many of the arguments about why dice control is real or why it isn’t. I’m not trying to tell you what to believe. But by the end of the page you’re going to know why you should consider trying to control the dice at the craps table.
How it Works
Dice control is a simple concept on the surface. You set the dice the same way in your fingers, throw them using the same motion every time, and hit the wall of the craps table the same place every time. If you can do this, it makes sense that you should be able to either control the outcome of the roll to some degree or at least predict the outcome at a better rate than random.
When you start practicing dice control, you want to make it as close to real play as possible. This starts with using the same dice the casinos use. Using cheap dice like the ones that come in board games won’t work. Find a few sets of dice manufactured by the same company as the casino uses. And don’t use the same set of dice every time. Switch sets of dice from time to time, just like the casinos do.
You start with placing the dice the same way in your fingers every time. You want to use your fingers instead of placing the dice in your palm because it reduces the friction when the dice are thrown. You want to have the least amount of contact as possible with the dice.
The way you set the dice depends on what you want to accomplish on the roll. But in order to keep it simple, until you learn how to make consistent throws, you’re going to set the dice with one showing four face up and the other showing three face up. I suggest setting them so the numbers on the sides are the same each time as well. This way the two dice always start exactly the same.
Once the dice are set the way you want them on the table, use your thumb on one side equally on both dice and your first two fingers on the other side. Always grasp them at the same place so your set is consistent. An easy way to do this is to lightly rest the tips of your thumb and first two fingers on the felt and then squeeze the dice.
You want to apply the same amount of pressure on the dice each time. You don’t want to squeeze them too tight, but you also need to make sure you maintain control. The exact amount of pressure you need to use can only be learned with time and practice, but focus on being consistent.
The next step is to throw the dice using the same arm motion every time. This is something that takes a great deal of practice, but it’s not much different than learning how to swing a golf club or a baseball bat. Once again, consistency is the goal.
You want to train your arm muscles to make the same throwing motion every time. This is called muscle memory, and it’s a real thing. It’s not easy, but professional athletes do things like this every day. Basketball players practice their jump shots and free throws for hours, just like golfers practice their shots.
In order to practice in the best way possible, you need to set up a practice area. The best situation is to use a regulation craps table. If you can use one, you should use it for all of your practice. The problem is they’re hard to find and can be expensive. But you want to practice in an environment as close to actual casino play as possible.
You can also build or buy a smaller table or box to set on a normal table. It’s important that you use a box that has the same rubber diamond rail as the casino uses and that the felt is cushioned the same. Creating a good practice box isn’t easy, but it doesn’t do much good to practice if you can’t duplicate your results in the casino.
When you first start practicing, make sure you throw from the same spot every time. But you need to realize that you don’t always throw from the same spot in the casino when you play craps, unless you wait to play until your spot is open.
This creates an issue for your practice and results. You need decide if you’re going to throw from different spots while practicing. If you do, you need to keep track of where you stand in your results. If you’re going to only stand in one place, how are you going to deal with this when you play in the casino?
I didn’t say dice control was easy. But if you’re going to do it, you need to do it the right way. If you don’t try to duplicate the casino environment exactly and take shortcuts, there’s no reason to waste your time.
When you practice your goal is to hit the wall at the same place every time. When you start practicing, this might seem impossible. But if you stick with it you can get better. Come up with a schedule to practice and stick with. If you can make 200 throws every day, which comes out to 1,400 a week, and 72,800 a year.
Record all of your results so you can look at them statistically over time. I suggest putting them in a spreadsheet like Microsoft Excel. You also need to record the date and time for each set of results.
I also recommend trying to get the temperature where you practice as close to the temperature in the casino where you play. Most players ignore this or don’t think about it, but the truth is that the air temperature and humidity does come into play.
Casinos usually keep it cooler than most people keep their houses, because they don’t want gamblers to get tired and quit playing. Keep this in mind when you set the temperature where you plan to practice.
It’s also a good idea to attempt to practice at the same time of day that you normally play in the casino. Try to eat the same way as you do on the days you play live, and attempt to keep the rest of your day the same. Your body is a complex machine and you want to make it as close to the same in practice as when you play for real.
As you compile data and analyze the results, you aren’t looking for the ability to roll a particular total. What you’re looking for is how the way you set the dice changes the expected totals. If you make 100,000 rolls and the results are the same as the expected results, you aren’t controlling the dice.
But if your results don’t fall in line with normal random results, you can use this to change the house edge. You can also alter the results by changing the numbers shown face up on the dice. This is why learning how to control dice can be profitable.
Here are a couple places you can look for dice and other craps supplies. I don’t have any connection to either place and can’t guarantee the quality.
Why You Should Consider It
At this point you should have a clear understanding of how hard it’s going to be to even have a chance to control the dice. It might take a year or longer just to find out if you might be able to do it. In this section I’m going to show you why the effort is worth considering.
The house edge on a pass line bet is 1.41% and it’s 1.36% on a don’t pass line bet. These aren’t the lowest house edge bets in the casino, but they both are reasonable.
Here’s how a pass line bet works:
You place a bet on the pass line. If your first roll, called the come out roll, is a 7 or 11, you win. When the come out roll is a 2, 3, or 12, you lose. The other rolls establish a point. When a point is established, if the point is rolled before a 7, you win. But if a 7 is rolled before the point is rolled again, you lose.
The question at this point is how dice control can help? You want to roll a 7 on the come out roll, but when a point is set you don’t want to roll a 7. Remember that when you learn how to control dice you aren’t trying to roll a particular number. You’re trying to train your arm to roll in a consistent manner.
If you can roll consistently, you can change the value of the rolls by changing the set dice numbers when you pick them up.
Before you continue, you need to understand that no matter how much you practice dice control, there’s no way you can consistently roll the exact numbers you want. It’s simply not possible.
But the good news is that you only need to alter the normal random results a small amount in order to swing the house edge in your favor. You aren’t looking for perfection. You’re looking for the ability to change the outcome of a few rolls out of every 100 you make.
Here are the normal percentage chances of random dice rolls for a pair of dice:
Dice Total Percentage
These percentages are found using a simple formula based on the number of chances or combinations for each number divided by a total of 36 different combinations. To roll a total of 2 or 12, there’s only one possible combination for each. To roll a 12, you have to roll a 6 and a 6. One combination divided by 36 total possible combinations is 2.78%.
Using these percentages you can calculate how often you win on the come out roll with a random roll. You simply add the percentages for the 7 and the 11, for a total of 22.23%.
Now consider the house edge of 1.41% and what this actually means. The house edge is the percentage of every dollar wagered on the game that the casino makes as profit. The house edge is an average over a long time, so it can be difficult to see how it works while playing one roll at a time. It’s easier to see how it works if we look at it in action.
Here’s an example:
If you made 100 bets on the pass line, each of $1, the total amount you wagered is $100. On average, the casino is going to win $1.41 of the $100, leaving you with $98.59. On each individual decision you either win $1 or lose $1.
In order to use dice control to change the house edge from you losing to you winning, you need to change the percentage of losses by over 1.41%. If we round this up, because it needs to be more than 1.41, we get to 2%.
This means that you need to turn two losing rolls out of 100 into winning rolls. If you can change two rolls, the edge is now in your favor by .59%. This isn’t a very high percentage, but it can add up quickly. This is especially true if you bet a higher amount.
If you bet $100 per come out roll, you can expect to 59 cents on average. This still doesn’t seem like much, but what if you bet $1,000? Now you make $5.90 on average every time you do it. The numbers get better if you can change more than two rolls out of 100. In addition, you should always be a member of the rewards program at the casino so you can earn comps while playing. Comps are worth some monetary value, so even if you just eliminate the house edge you can play with a positive edge because of the comps.
The point is that if you have any chance at controlling the dice, it’s probably worth trying because you only need to influence a small number of rolls in order to eliminate the house edge. If you can become a master at dice control, it’s possible to earn some real money.
Does It Work?
The truth is that until you try it, there’s no way to determine if dice control really works. You can find arguments on both sides of the issue. Here are some of the arguments from both sides.
One of the main arguments from people who say it doesn’t work is that the casinos don’t seem to be worried about it. The casinos know that smart card counters in blackjack can win, so they watch for counters and keep them from playing when they catch them.
This is a decent argument, but it doesn’t really prove that dice control isn’t possible. It only proves that casinos know that card counters can hurt them. It doesn’t mean that dice control doesn’t work just because the casinos don’t seem to be worried about it.
It’s possible that dice control is so hard that only a few players are actually able to do it, so the bottom line profit and loss to the casinos is so small overall that they don’t see a problem. Another possibility is the casino has determined that most people who try to control the dice aren’t good at it and lose enough to make up for the few who can do it well.
You also need to realize that the casino personnel at craps tables do watch dice rolls and if they don’t hit the back wall or slide into the back wall they often warn the shooter and / or disallow the roll. So the casinos do watch for players trying to game the system.
One of my favorite arguments against dice control is that the players who yell the loudest that it works are the ones that are selling a book or course about it. While this argument may hold some weight, it still doesn’t prove it works or doesn’t. I do recommend not believing too much that comes out of the mouth of someone trying to sell you a gambling system of any kind without proving it yourself.
Another argument against the possibility of dice control is from the physics side. The process of picking up and setting the dice, throwing them with the exact same arm motion, and hitting the back wall of the craps table with the diamond shaped texture makes it impossible to do the same thing every time.
The problem with this argument is that it can be argued from the other side as well. You can train your body to do things the same way over and over by repetitive practice. The diamond shaped back wall on the craps table is designed to create random dice rolls, but the truth is that it doesn’t change and if you can hit the wall the same place with the same angle every time you can create similar results.
The biggest problem with figuring out if dice control works is that you need a large sample size to know for sure. Most craps players never make enough rolls to know if their results are because of dice control of because of randomness in a small sample size.
Some players argue that a sample size as small as 10,000 is good enough, while others say you need 100,000 or 1,000,000 rolls or more. How many rolls do you make on a normal trip to the casino? How many can you make per day while you practice? While you practice you have to consider how long you can play before your arm gets tired.
The best way to find out if dice control really works is to start trying to do it. You can read what others say or listen to arguments all day, but you won’t know unless you put in the work. Just remember that it may take years and hundreds of thousands of rolls before you really know.
The concept of dice control is simple, but transferring the concept into real life can be complicated. Some people believe it can’t be done, and others swear that it’s real. Now that you know exactly how dice control works and how to practice, you can give it a try and determine if you can make it work. That’s the only way you can be sure if dice control is real.
If you can learn how to change the results of just 2% of your rolls, you can eliminate the house edge. This is the main reason why you should consider giving dice control a try.